- Robotics expert Rodney Brooks said that those who talk excitedly about the future of artificial intelligence should return to the real world.
- According to Brooks, a period of stagnation may be on the way in artificial intelligence or even in all fields of technology.
- Reviewing his old predictions, the scientist claims that the next big breakthrough in artificial intelligence will not happen before 2050.
Rodney Brooks, former director of artificial intelligence and computer laboratories at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote a review in which he scored his own predictions for the technology sector. blog post published. The famous roboticist, who is also one of the founders of the iRobot company that invented Roomba, says that the much-vaunted near future of artificial intelligence does not seem as bright as exaggerated.
Rodney Brooks said that despite the unprecedented successes in the field in recent years, the artificial intelligence industry only follows one cycle. According to Brooks, advances in this field will likely stagnate before the next big breakthrough occurs. This dry spell could lead to a catastrophic decline for the industry, which is expected to be worth over $1 trillion in the next decade.
Where do Brooks’ predictions come from?
Brooks made his predictions about technological developments in 2018. Then he divided the realization times of these predictions into three: It will happen until a certain year, it will not happen before a certain year, and it will not happen before 2050. With each year that passes, Brooks rates them as either true, very pessimistic, or very optimistic.
Many of Brooks’ predictions turned out to be correct. The scientist predicted in 2018 that the “next big thing” in artificial intelligence would happen between 2023 and 2027. The rise of tools like ChatGPT by OpenAI has proven him right. Almost every technology leader has tried and is trying to capitalize on this trend with their own smart chatbots.
But Rodney Brooks takes a more measured stance going forward. The next big thing, called artificial general intelligence (AGI) and said to be imminent by industry leaders, won’t happen until 2050, according to Brooks. Scientist; He even doubts that a robot that looks as intelligent, alert and loyal as a dog could be built before 2048.
With these predictions, Rodney Brooks does not say that the artificial intelligence industry is coming to an end. However, he notes that such ambitious technological advances take a lot of time.
Compiled by: İsa Arslan
